Recent forecasts from Argentine meteorological services and international models project a maximum temperature in Buenos Aires of 12–13°C on August 21, cooler than the long-term August average near 16°C, as a cooler air mass advects southward behind a frontal passage. This positions the market’s leading outcomes at 13°C (41%) and 12°C (35%), with tight clustering around those values reflecting model spread in daytime insolation, wind speed, and low-level moisture that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Official observations at the central station will resolve the market, incorporating any urban heat effects or brief cloud cover that modulates surface heating. Traders weigh these variables against historical winter variability, where small steering or radiative changes frequently shift daily maxima across adjacent thresholds.