**Current short-term forecast models indicate moderate uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and cold air advection for Buenos Aires on October 3, driving the near-even market split between an 8°C-or-below minimum and an 18°C-or-higher outcome.** As of October 1, official guidance from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models (including ECMWF-influenced runs) cluster expected overnight lows around 11–13°C under variable cloud cover, light to moderate northeasterly or southeasterly winds, and scattered showers. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any southward-moving frontal boundary, which could enhance cooling via increased wind or clearer skies, versus persistent milder northerly flow that limits nocturnal temperature drops. Historical early-October climatology shows typical minima near 10–12°C, so deviations hinge on the latest model runs updating wind vectors and boundary-layer moisture before resolution. Traders appear to price in this genuine forecast spread rather than a single consensus trajectory.