Current forecasts from NOAA and private models indicate Denver’s overnight low on October 9 will settle in the mid-50s under clear skies and light southwesterly flow, supporting the market’s leading 54-55 °F bucket at 51 % implied probability. Radiative cooling after daytime highs near 83–86 °F, combined with dew points in the 40s and minimal cloud cover, favors this range rather than warmer outcomes near 66 °F or higher, which would require sustained warm advection or unexpected cloudiness not shown in current guidance. The 47 °F-or-below tail remains unlikely absent a sharp cold front. Traders appear to weigh model consensus heavily while acknowledging typical 2–3 °F forecast spread two days out.