Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Istanbul's September 22 minimum temperature will likely fall in the mid-teens Celsius amid incoming northerly winds and widespread rain, though trader odds remain nearly even between 10°C or below and 20°C or higher. The close split reflects uncertainty in the precise timing and strength of a cold front crossing the region, which modulates overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing. Stronger northerly flow and earlier precipitation could enhance cooling below typical September averages of 16–17°C by advecting cooler maritime air, while delayed or lighter rain and persistent cloud cover might limit the drop. Key upcoming model runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance will clarify whether the low settles near 14–16°C or deviates toward either tail.