**Forecast models from agencies like the Met Office and private sources indicate a daily minimum temperature in London of 12–16°C on August 24, 2026, with the strongest consensus around 13–14°C.** This aligns with market-implied probabilities favoring those outcomes, as recent model runs show overnight lows dipping to the low-to-mid 50s °F under partly cloudy skies and moderate easterly winds. Key scientific drivers include radiational cooling under clear or broken cloud cover, typical for late-summer high-pressure setups, combined with dry air advection from the east that limits moisture and cloud insulation. Current August conditions have featured above-average temperatures overall, but a cooling trend has emerged in the final week, with recent nights already reaching 11–14°C. Ensemble forecasts show limited spread for the 24th minimum, though small shifts in cloud cover or wind speed could nudge the low by 1–2°C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance, which places the most likely minimum near the historical late-August average for the region while accounting for the current dry, stable pattern. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.