Republican Aaron Flint holds a clear lead in the MT-01 House race due to the district’s underlying Republican tilt—Trump carried it by 12 points in 2024—combined with his Trump endorsement, strong PAC and outside spending, and effective attacks on Democrat Sam Forstag’s prior lobbying work supporting sales taxes and higher property taxes. Forstag, a former smokejumper and union leader who won a competitive Democratic primary, has emphasized affordability and public lands but trails in trader consensus despite some recent polls showing a near tie. The November 3 contest remains the state’s most competitive federal race, with external advertising and negative messaging on Forstag’s record appearing to widen the market gap in the final weeks.