OpenAI’s rapid 2026 release cadence, marked by the April launch of GPT-5.5 and the May rollout of its lightweight GPT-5.5 Instant variant as the default ChatGPT model, continues to shape trader expectations around when the next frontier system will appear on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena. Multiple GPT-5.x iterations, including specialized Codex variants, have quickly posted competitive Elo scores after internal testing, sometimes starting under anonymous codenames before full attribution. This pattern, alongside ongoing competition from Anthropic’s Claude Opus series and emerging multimodal experiments, suggests OpenAI may again use Arena for early capability validation. Key catalysts ahead include potential developer conferences, API updates, or regulatory filings that could signal a new model’s readiness, while historical release timelines indicate another major drop remains plausible before year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$106,360 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
1450+
78%
1470+
85%
$106,360 Vol.
1450+
$24,804 Vol.
78%
1470+
$25,840 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s rapid 2026 release cadence, marked by the April launch of GPT-5.5 and the May rollout of its lightweight GPT-5.5 Instant variant as the default ChatGPT model, continues to shape trader expectations around when the next frontier system will appear on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena. Multiple GPT-5.x iterations, including specialized Codex variants, have quickly posted competitive Elo scores after internal testing, sometimes starting under anonymous codenames before full attribution. This pattern, alongside ongoing competition from Anthropic’s Claude Opus series and emerging multimodal experiments, suggests OpenAI may again use Arena for early capability validation. Key catalysts ahead include potential developer conferences, API updates, or regulatory filings that could signal a new model’s readiness, while historical release timelines indicate another major drop remains plausible before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: May 5, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
ভলিউম
$106,360শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 5, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s rapid 2026 release cadence, marked by the April launch of GPT-5.5 and the May rollout of its lightweight GPT-5.5 Instant variant as the default ChatGPT model, continues to shape trader expectations around when the next frontier system will appear on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena. Multiple GPT-5.x iterations, including specialized Codex variants, have quickly posted competitive Elo scores after internal testing, sometimes starting under anonymous codenames before full attribution. This pattern, alongside ongoing competition from Anthropic’s Claude Opus series and emerging multimodal experiments, suggests OpenAI may again use Arena for early capability validation. Key catalysts ahead include potential developer conferences, API updates, or regulatory filings that could signal a new model’s readiness, while historical release timelines indicate another major drop remains plausible before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
ভলিউম
$106,360শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 5, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s rapid 2026 release cadence, marked by the April launch of GPT-5.5 and the May rollout of its lightweight GPT-5.5 Instant variant as the default ChatGPT model, continues to shape trader expectations around when the next frontier system will appear on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena. Multiple GPT-5.x iterations, including specialized Codex variants, have quickly posted competitive Elo scores after internal testing, sometimes starting under anonymous codenames before full attribution. This pattern, alongside ongoing competition from Anthropic’s Claude Opus series and emerging multimodal experiments, suggests OpenAI may again use Arena for early capability validation. Key catalysts ahead include potential developer conferences, API updates, or regulatory filings that could signal a new model’s readiness, while historical release timelines indicate another major drop remains plausible before year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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