Recent model releases have fragmented trader consensus on the second-best AI lab, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% across OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Moonshot, DeepSeek, Alibaba, and others. Moonshot's July 16 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3—an open-weight model claiming strong gains on coding and agent benchmarks against some Claude and GPT variants—has underscored Chinese labs' rapid progress in scale and specialization, narrowing perceived gaps with U.S. leaders. Meanwhile, ongoing iterations from Anthropic's Claude Opus series, OpenAI's GPT-5.6, Google's Gemini updates, and Meta's Llama efforts highlight shifting strengths in reasoning, multimodality, and open ecosystems. With August resolution approaching, traders appear focused on near-term capability demonstrations and benchmark leadership rather than any single dominant trajectory.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAnthropic 51%
OpenAI 46%
Meta 44%
Z.ai 44%
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
51%
OpenAI
46%
Meta
44%
Z.ai
44%
43%
Alibaba
43%
Amazon
43%
Nvidia
43%
SpaceXAI
43%
MiniMax
42%
Meituan
42%
StepFun
42%
Moonshot
42%
Xiaomi
42%
DeepSeek
42%
Tencent
42%
Baidu
41%
Microsoft
41%
ByteDance
41%
Thinky
40%
Mistral
40%
Anthropic 51%
OpenAI 46%
Meta 44%
Z.ai 44%
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
51%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
46%
Meta
$0 Vol.
44%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
44%
$0 Vol.
43%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
43%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
43%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
43%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
43%
MiniMax
$33 Vol.
42%
Meituan
$33 Vol.
42%
StepFun
$34 Vol.
42%
Moonshot
$32 Vol.
42%
Xiaomi
$38 Vol.
42%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
42%
Tencent
$52 Vol.
42%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
41%
Microsoft
$33 Vol.
41%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
41%
Thinky
$33 Vol.
40%
Mistral
$40 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have fragmented trader consensus on the second-best AI lab, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% across OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Moonshot, DeepSeek, Alibaba, and others. Moonshot's July 16 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3—an open-weight model claiming strong gains on coding and agent benchmarks against some Claude and GPT variants—has underscored Chinese labs' rapid progress in scale and specialization, narrowing perceived gaps with U.S. leaders. Meanwhile, ongoing iterations from Anthropic's Claude Opus series, OpenAI's GPT-5.6, Google's Gemini updates, and Meta's Llama efforts highlight shifting strengths in reasoning, multimodality, and open ecosystems. With August resolution approaching, traders appear focused on near-term capability demonstrations and benchmark leadership rather than any single dominant trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 20, 2026, 8:50 PM ET
ভলিউম
$328শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 20, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have fragmented trader consensus on the second-best AI lab, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% across OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Moonshot, DeepSeek, Alibaba, and others. Moonshot's July 16 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3—an open-weight model claiming strong gains on coding and agent benchmarks against some Claude and GPT variants—has underscored Chinese labs' rapid progress in scale and specialization, narrowing perceived gaps with U.S. leaders. Meanwhile, ongoing iterations from Anthropic's Claude Opus series, OpenAI's GPT-5.6, Google's Gemini updates, and Meta's Llama efforts highlight shifting strengths in reasoning, multimodality, and open ecosystems. With August resolution approaching, traders appear focused on near-term capability demonstrations and benchmark leadership rather than any single dominant trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ভলিউম
$328শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 20, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases have fragmented trader consensus on the second-best AI lab, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% across OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Moonshot, DeepSeek, Alibaba, and others. Moonshot's July 16 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3—an open-weight model claiming strong gains on coding and agent benchmarks against some Claude and GPT variants—has underscored Chinese labs' rapid progress in scale and specialization, narrowing perceived gaps with U.S. leaders. Meanwhile, ongoing iterations from Anthropic's Claude Opus series, OpenAI's GPT-5.6, Google's Gemini updates, and Meta's Llama efforts highlight shifting strengths in reasoning, multimodality, and open ecosystems. With August resolution approaching, traders appear focused on near-term capability demonstrations and benchmark leadership rather than any single dominant trajectory.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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