Internal divisions within Ukraine’s security apparatus, including a September 2026 shootout between the SBU and military intelligence (HUR), alongside corruption investigations targeting presidential office figures and energy sector associates, have fueled domestic tensions and protests over anti-graft reforms. Ukrainian authorities have publicly foiled at least one reported plot by four individuals to seize parliament and install a provisional government, while separately detaining a suspect in an alleged assassination scheme against President Zelenskyy. Martial law continues to bar elections, amid calls from former officials for wartime voting and external pressure from U.S. statements questioning leadership legitimacy. These factors, combined with active conflict and institutional controls, underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of a qualifying coup attempt materializing by year-end.