Tropical Storm Rachel, currently at 50-60 mph with a broad, sheared structure off southwestern Mexico, drives market-implied odds favoring a Category 2 peak at 46.5%. National Hurricane Center guidance projects gradual intensification to around 85 kt (roughly 98 mph) over the next 48-72 hours as the low-level center aligns better with convection and shear eases, though the storm is expected to remain offshore. Some dynamical models indicate potential for major-hurricane strength, tempered by possible cooler waters in the wake of Hurricane Polo and mixed intensity guidance. Recent satellite improvements and aircraft data support the modest upward trend in forecasts, with resolution hinging on whether Rachel surpasses the 96 mph Category 2 threshold before leveling off.