**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development throughout the 2026 season, producing only tropical storms so far and driving the record-late first-hurricane milestone past September 11.** As of September 20, six named storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, and Fay) have formed, but none have reached the 74 mph (64 kt) threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Accumulated cyclone energy remains extremely low at roughly 4.7—far below the historical average—reflecting hostile wind shear and atmospheric stability tied to a strong or super El Niño. Tropical Storm Fay, which developed on September 19–20 in the subtropical Atlantic southwest of the Azores, has briefly strengthened to around 60–65 mph but faces increasing shear and cooler waters that limit further intensification; official National Hurricane Center guidance indicates it may approach but is unlikely to sustain hurricane strength before weakening. No other disturbances show near-term development potential in the main development region or elsewhere. These conditions explain the market’s leading outcomes: the 46.5% on September 21–25 reflects any slim chance of rapid organization in the coming days, while the 36% on “no Atlantic hurricane in September 2026” captures the broader forecast consensus that peak-season suppression will persist through month-end. Historical analogs (e.g., 1994, 1914) and model consensus reinforce the elevated probability of a September without a hurricane.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWhen will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
September 21 to September 25, 2026 49%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026 35%
September 16 to September 20, 2026 14.9%
September 26 to September 30, 2026 3.1%
$30,930 Vol.
$30,930 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
September 11 to September 15, 2026
1%
September 16 to September 20, 2026
15%
September 21 to September 25, 2026
49%
September 26 to September 30, 2026
3%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026
35%
September 21 to September 25, 2026 49%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026 35%
September 16 to September 20, 2026 14.9%
September 26 to September 30, 2026 3.1%
$30,930 Vol.
$30,930 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
September 11 to September 15, 2026
$1,145 Vol.
1%
September 16 to September 20, 2026
$10,611 Vol.
15%
September 21 to September 25, 2026
$7,132 Vol.
49%
September 26 to September 30, 2026
$2,708 Vol.
3%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026
$8,722 Vol.
35%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development throughout the 2026 season, producing only tropical storms so far and driving the record-late first-hurricane milestone past September 11.** As of September 20, six named storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, and Fay) have formed, but none have reached the 74 mph (64 kt) threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Accumulated cyclone energy remains extremely low at roughly 4.7—far below the historical average—reflecting hostile wind shear and atmospheric stability tied to a strong or super El Niño.
Tropical Storm Fay, which developed on September 19–20 in the subtropical Atlantic southwest of the Azores, has briefly strengthened to around 60–65 mph but faces increasing shear and cooler waters that limit further intensification; official National Hurricane Center guidance indicates it may approach but is unlikely to sustain hurricane strength before weakening. No other disturbances show near-term development potential in the main development region or elsewhere.
These conditions explain the market’s leading outcomes: the 46.5% on September 21–25 reflects any slim chance of rapid organization in the coming days, while the 36% on “no Atlantic hurricane in September 2026” captures the broader forecast consensus that peak-season suppression will persist through month-end. Historical analogs (e.g., 1994, 1914) and model consensus reinforce the elevated probability of a September without a hurricane.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
ভলিউম
$30,930শেষ তারিখ
Oct 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/রেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development throughout the 2026 season, producing only tropical storms so far and driving the record-late first-hurricane milestone past September 11.** As of September 20, six named storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, and Fay) have formed, but none have reached the 74 mph (64 kt) threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Accumulated cyclone energy remains extremely low at roughly 4.7—far below the historical average—reflecting hostile wind shear and atmospheric stability tied to a strong or super El Niño.
Tropical Storm Fay, which developed on September 19–20 in the subtropical Atlantic southwest of the Azores, has briefly strengthened to around 60–65 mph but faces increasing shear and cooler waters that limit further intensification; official National Hurricane Center guidance indicates it may approach but is unlikely to sustain hurricane strength before weakening. No other disturbances show near-term development potential in the main development region or elsewhere.
These conditions explain the market’s leading outcomes: the 46.5% on September 21–25 reflects any slim chance of rapid organization in the coming days, while the 36% on “no Atlantic hurricane in September 2026” captures the broader forecast consensus that peak-season suppression will persist through month-end. Historical analogs (e.g., 1994, 1914) and model consensus reinforce the elevated probability of a September without a hurricane.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
ভলিউম
$30,930শেষ তারিখ
Oct 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/রেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development throughout the 2026 season, producing only tropical storms so far and driving the record-late first-hurricane milestone past September 11.** As of September 20, six named storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, and Fay) have formed, but none have reached the 74 mph (64 kt) threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Accumulated cyclone energy remains extremely low at roughly 4.7—far below the historical average—reflecting hostile wind shear and atmospheric stability tied to a strong or super El Niño. Tropical Storm Fay, which developed on September 19–20 in the subtropical Atlantic southwest of the Azores, has briefly strengthened to around 60–65 mph but faces increasing shear and cooler waters that limit further intensification; official National Hurricane Center guidance indicates it may approach but is unlikely to sustain hurricane strength before weakening. No other disturbances show near-term development potential in the main development region or elsewhere. These conditions explain the market’s leading outcomes: the 46.5% on September 21–25 reflects any slim chance of rapid organization in the coming days, while the 36% on “no Atlantic hurricane in September 2026” captures the broader forecast consensus that peak-season suppression will persist through month-end. Historical analogs (e.g., 1994, 1914) and model consensus reinforce the elevated probability of a September without a hurricane.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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