Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects negligible failure risk for listed banks by June 30, pricing Yes shares at 1-5¢ across outcomes—with KeyBank highest at 5¢ implied probability—anchored by U.S. banking sector resilience post-2023 reforms. Two small failures this year, Metropolitan Capital Bank in late January ($261 million assets) and Community Bank & Trust-West Georgia on May 1 ($288 million assets), arose from firm-specific mismanagement rather than systemic pressures, resolved swiftly via FDIC purchase-and-assumption by healthy acquirers at minimal deposit insurance cost. Major institutions boast CET1 ratios above 13% and liquidity coverage ratios over 140% per Q1 2026 call reports, buffering commercial real estate exposure amid steady Treasury yields near 4.5%. Federal Reserve stress tests next month loom as pivotal, potentially testing scenarios but historically affirming stability.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড30 জুনের মধ্যে কোন ব্যাঙ্কগুলি ব্যর্থ হবে?
30 জুনের মধ্যে কোন ব্যাঙ্কগুলি ব্যর্থ হবে?
$490,369 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
লয়েডস
5%
RBC
3%
কি-কিব্যাংক
2%
ট্রুয়িস্ট
1%
ইউবিএস
1%
Wells Fargo
1%
এইচএসবিসি
1%
স্কোশিয়াব্যাংক
1%
সানতান্দের
1%
Morgan Stanley
1%
Goldman Sachs
1%
বিএনওয়াই
1%
বিএনপি পারিবাস
1%
ব্যাংক অফ আমেরিকা
1%
ডয়চে ব্যাংক
1%
ইউএস ব্যাংক
1%
জে পি মরগান চেস
1%
সিটি গ্রুপ
1%
বিএমও
1%
$490,369 Vol.
লয়েডস
$557 Vol.
5%
RBC
$169 Vol.
3%
কি-কিব্যাংক
$544 Vol.
2%
ট্রুয়িস্ট
$223 Vol.
1%
ইউবিএস
$34,031 Vol.
1%
Wells Fargo
$617 Vol.
1%
এইচএসবিসি
$39,713 Vol.
1%
স্কোশিয়াব্যাংক
$47,469 Vol.
1%
সানতান্দের
$168 Vol.
1%
Morgan Stanley
$565 Vol.
1%
Goldman Sachs
$34,283 Vol.
1%
বিএনওয়াই
$119 Vol.
1%
বিএনপি পারিবাস
$23,077 Vol.
1%
ব্যাংক অফ আমেরিকা
$560 Vol.
1%
ডয়চে ব্যাংক
$168,028 Vol.
1%
ইউএস ব্যাংক
$706 Vol.
1%
জে পি মরগান চেস
$129,167 Vol.
1%
সিটি গ্রুপ
$9,652 Vol.
1%
বিএমও
$723 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects negligible failure risk for listed banks by June 30, pricing Yes shares at 1-5¢ across outcomes—with KeyBank highest at 5¢ implied probability—anchored by U.S. banking sector resilience post-2023 reforms. Two small failures this year, Metropolitan Capital Bank in late January ($261 million assets) and Community Bank & Trust-West Georgia on May 1 ($288 million assets), arose from firm-specific mismanagement rather than systemic pressures, resolved swiftly via FDIC purchase-and-assumption by healthy acquirers at minimal deposit insurance cost. Major institutions boast CET1 ratios above 13% and liquidity coverage ratios over 140% per Q1 2026 call reports, buffering commercial real estate exposure amid steady Treasury yields near 4.5%. Federal Reserve stress tests next month loom as pivotal, potentially testing scenarios but historically affirming stability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ET
ভলিউম
$490,369শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects negligible failure risk for listed banks by June 30, pricing Yes shares at 1-5¢ across outcomes—with KeyBank highest at 5¢ implied probability—anchored by U.S. banking sector resilience post-2023 reforms. Two small failures this year, Metropolitan Capital Bank in late January ($261 million assets) and Community Bank & Trust-West Georgia on May 1 ($288 million assets), arose from firm-specific mismanagement rather than systemic pressures, resolved swiftly via FDIC purchase-and-assumption by healthy acquirers at minimal deposit insurance cost. Major institutions boast CET1 ratios above 13% and liquidity coverage ratios over 140% per Q1 2026 call reports, buffering commercial real estate exposure amid steady Treasury yields near 4.5%. Federal Reserve stress tests next month loom as pivotal, potentially testing scenarios but historically affirming stability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$490,369শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects negligible failure risk for listed banks by June 30, pricing Yes shares at 1-5¢ across outcomes—with KeyBank highest at 5¢ implied probability—anchored by U.S. banking sector resilience post-2023 reforms. Two small failures this year, Metropolitan Capital Bank in late January ($261 million assets) and Community Bank & Trust-West Georgia on May 1 ($288 million assets), arose from firm-specific mismanagement rather than systemic pressures, resolved swiftly via FDIC purchase-and-assumption by healthy acquirers at minimal deposit insurance cost. Major institutions boast CET1 ratios above 13% and liquidity coverage ratios over 140% per Q1 2026 call reports, buffering commercial real estate exposure amid steady Treasury yields near 4.5%. Federal Reserve stress tests next month loom as pivotal, potentially testing scenarios but historically affirming stability.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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