Anthropic’s recent flagship releases, including Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 in June–July 2026, have driven the 87.5% market-implied probability by topping composite leaderboards and benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and agentic performance. These models deliver measurable gains in long-context handling and production workflows over prior versions, outpacing competitors on third-party evaluations as of mid-August. OpenAI’s GPT-5 series and Google’s Gemini updates maintain strong positions but trail in current trader consensus, reflected in their sub-5% odds, while smaller labs face capability gaps. With roughly six weeks until end-of-September resolution, no confirmed releases from rivals are expected to close the gap before then, though benchmark fragmentation across tasks keeps some uncertainty in play.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAnthropic 88%
SpaceXAI 5.3%
OpenAI 4.0%
Google 2.7%
$318,133 Vol.
$318,133 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
88%
SpaceXAI
5%
OpenAI
4%
3%
Meta
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Anthropic 88%
SpaceXAI 5.3%
OpenAI 4.0%
Google 2.7%
$318,133 Vol.
$318,133 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$43,582 Vol.
88%
SpaceXAI
$16,362 Vol.
5%
OpenAI
$16,822 Vol.
4%
$15,459 Vol.
3%
Meta
$13,276 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$18,095 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$11,805 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$12,542 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$17,840 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$12,784 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$11,301 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$14,670 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$11,882 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$13,122 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$16,265 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$14,148 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$14,320 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$12,486 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$10,484 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$6,758 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$14,131 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent flagship releases, including Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 in June–July 2026, have driven the 87.5% market-implied probability by topping composite leaderboards and benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and agentic performance. These models deliver measurable gains in long-context handling and production workflows over prior versions, outpacing competitors on third-party evaluations as of mid-August. OpenAI’s GPT-5 series and Google’s Gemini updates maintain strong positions but trail in current trader consensus, reflected in their sub-5% odds, while smaller labs face capability gaps. With roughly six weeks until end-of-September resolution, no confirmed releases from rivals are expected to close the gap before then, though benchmark fragmentation across tasks keeps some uncertainty in play.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
ভলিউম
$318,133শেষ তারিখ
Sep 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent flagship releases, including Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 in June–July 2026, have driven the 87.5% market-implied probability by topping composite leaderboards and benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and agentic performance. These models deliver measurable gains in long-context handling and production workflows over prior versions, outpacing competitors on third-party evaluations as of mid-August. OpenAI’s GPT-5 series and Google’s Gemini updates maintain strong positions but trail in current trader consensus, reflected in their sub-5% odds, while smaller labs face capability gaps. With roughly six weeks until end-of-September resolution, no confirmed releases from rivals are expected to close the gap before then, though benchmark fragmentation across tasks keeps some uncertainty in play.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ভলিউম
$318,133শেষ তারিখ
Sep 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent flagship releases, including Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 in June–July 2026, have driven the 87.5% market-implied probability by topping composite leaderboards and benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and agentic performance. These models deliver measurable gains in long-context handling and production workflows over prior versions, outpacing competitors on third-party evaluations as of mid-August. OpenAI’s GPT-5 series and Google’s Gemini updates maintain strong positions but trail in current trader consensus, reflected in their sub-5% odds, while smaller labs face capability gaps. With roughly six weeks until end-of-September resolution, no confirmed releases from rivals are expected to close the gap before then, though benchmark fragmentation across tasks keeps some uncertainty in play.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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