Relationship volatility and repeated public signals of instability continue to anchor trader sentiment heavily against an engagement this year. Cardi B confirmed the couple’s split multiple times in early 2026, including onstage remarks in February and April, shortly after welcoming their son, while footage of a heated exchange surfaced in May. Ongoing rumors of reconciliation have produced brief market swings but lack confirmation, and Cardi’s still-active divorce proceedings from Offset add further uncertainty. With no precursor events such as joint appearances signaling commitment or official statements advancing marriage plans, the market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that these barriers make a 2026 proposal unlikely absent a major, verifiable turnaround before year-end.