**Macron has shown no signs of initiating a referendum before year-end, consistent with his pattern of raising the option without acting on it during his second term.** Recent legislative successes, including the assisted dying law passed by parliament in July and signed in August 2026, demonstrate a preference for standard parliamentary routes over direct public votes. Following the Constitutional Council’s August ruling striking down the under-15 social media ban, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill for parliamentary adoption by spring 2027 rather than pursuing a referendum. With municipal elections scheduled for March 2026 and the presidential contest set for April 2027, the pre-electoral calendar further reduces incentives for a high-stakes national consultation. Calls for a referendum have come mainly from figures like Gabriel Attal, not from the Élysée. Traders assign the “No” outcome a 91% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any confirmed plans or procedural steps toward a vote by December 31.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড8% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 30, 2026
8% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Macron has shown no signs of initiating a referendum before year-end, consistent with his pattern of raising the option without acting on it during his second term.** Recent legislative successes, including the assisted dying law passed by parliament in July and signed in August 2026, demonstrate a preference for standard parliamentary routes over direct public votes. Following the Constitutional Council’s August ruling striking down the under-15 social media ban, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill for parliamentary adoption by spring 2027 rather than pursuing a referendum. With municipal elections scheduled for March 2026 and the presidential contest set for April 2027, the pre-electoral calendar further reduces incentives for a high-stakes national consultation. Calls for a referendum have come mainly from figures like Gabriel Attal, not from the Élysée. Traders assign the “No” outcome a 91% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any confirmed plans or procedural steps toward a vote by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
ভলিউম
$0শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Macron has shown no signs of initiating a referendum before year-end, consistent with his pattern of raising the option without acting on it during his second term.** Recent legislative successes, including the assisted dying law passed by parliament in July and signed in August 2026, demonstrate a preference for standard parliamentary routes over direct public votes. Following the Constitutional Council’s August ruling striking down the under-15 social media ban, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill for parliamentary adoption by spring 2027 rather than pursuing a referendum. With municipal elections scheduled for March 2026 and the presidential contest set for April 2027, the pre-electoral calendar further reduces incentives for a high-stakes national consultation. Calls for a referendum have come mainly from figures like Gabriel Attal, not from the Élysée. Traders assign the “No” outcome a 91% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any confirmed plans or procedural steps toward a vote by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ভলিউম
$0শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Macron has shown no signs of initiating a referendum before year-end, consistent with his pattern of raising the option without acting on it during his second term.** Recent legislative successes, including the assisted dying law passed by parliament in July and signed in August 2026, demonstrate a preference for standard parliamentary routes over direct public votes. Following the Constitutional Council’s August ruling striking down the under-15 social media ban, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill for parliamentary adoption by spring 2027 rather than pursuing a referendum. With municipal elections scheduled for March 2026 and the presidential contest set for April 2027, the pre-electoral calendar further reduces incentives for a high-stakes national consultation. Calls for a referendum have come mainly from figures like Gabriel Attal, not from the Élysée. Traders assign the “No” outcome a 91% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any confirmed plans or procedural steps toward a vote by December 31.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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