**Exceptional warmth throughout June and July has positioned summer 2026 to surpass the UK’s previous record mean temperature set in 2025.** Provisional Met Office data show the UK running 1.8°C above the long-term seasonal average through mid-July—already warmer than the equivalent point in 2025—with England 2.4°C above average. Multiple heatwaves have delivered more days above 30°C than occurred in the entire iconic 1976 summer, while 2026 became the first year on record to reach 35°C in May, June, and July. June saw a new national maximum of 37.7°C, and July ranked as the second-warmest on record alongside the driest July for England and Wales in 190 years, driven by persistent high pressure, record sunshine, and minimal rainfall that amplified daytime and overnight warmth. These verified observational trends from the Met Office underpin the market-implied 85.5% probability for a new record, reflecting traders’ assessment that remaining August data are unlikely to reverse the cumulative lead. Official seasonal statistics will confirm the final ranking once the meteorological summer concludes at the end of August.