Recent observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus show May 2026 global surface temperatures tracking close to the elevated anomalies seen in 2024 and 2023, driven by the ongoing transition from La Niña to neutral-to-El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific. This shift enhances atmospheric heat retention and reduces cooling influences from trade winds, positioning the month for a likely second-hottest ranking behind 2024 while keeping a realistic chance of surpassing it if early-month warmth persists. Model consensus from the National Centers for Environmental Information highlights a narrow gap with prior records, with sea-surface temperatures already near second-warmest levels and minimal risk of dropping below third place given current trends.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 67%
1st hottest 28%
3rd hottest 5.5%
4th or lower 1.2%
$104,250 Vol.
$104,250 Vol.
10. Juni 2026
1st hottest
28%
2nd hottest
67%
3rd hottest
5%
4th or lower
1%
2nd hottest 67%
1st hottest 28%
3rd hottest 5.5%
4th or lower 1.2%
$104,250 Vol.
$104,250 Vol.
10. Juni 2026
1st hottest
$11,795 Vol.
28%
2nd hottest
$3,370 Vol.
67%
3rd hottest
$39,453 Vol.
5%
4th or lower
$49,632 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus show May 2026 global surface temperatures tracking close to the elevated anomalies seen in 2024 and 2023, driven by the ongoing transition from La Niña to neutral-to-El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific. This shift enhances atmospheric heat retention and reduces cooling influences from trade winds, positioning the month for a likely second-hottest ranking behind 2024 while keeping a realistic chance of surpassing it if early-month warmth persists. Model consensus from the National Centers for Environmental Information highlights a narrow gap with prior records, with sea-surface temperatures already near second-warmest levels and minimal risk of dropping below third place given current trends.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
Volumen
$104,250Enddatum
10. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus show May 2026 global surface temperatures tracking close to the elevated anomalies seen in 2024 and 2023, driven by the ongoing transition from La Niña to neutral-to-El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific. This shift enhances atmospheric heat retention and reduces cooling influences from trade winds, positioning the month for a likely second-hottest ranking behind 2024 while keeping a realistic chance of surpassing it if early-month warmth persists. Model consensus from the National Centers for Environmental Information highlights a narrow gap with prior records, with sea-surface temperatures already near second-warmest levels and minimal risk of dropping below third place given current trends.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$104,250Enddatum
10. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus show May 2026 global surface temperatures tracking close to the elevated anomalies seen in 2024 and 2023, driven by the ongoing transition from La Niña to neutral-to-El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific. This shift enhances atmospheric heat retention and reduces cooling influences from trade winds, positioning the month for a likely second-hottest ranking behind 2024 while keeping a realistic chance of surpassing it if early-month warmth persists. Model consensus from the National Centers for Environmental Information highlights a narrow gap with prior records, with sea-surface temperatures already near second-warmest levels and minimal risk of dropping below third place given current trends.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen