Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 1.10–1.14ºC (40%) and 1.15–1.19ºC (39.5%) for May 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly versus the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, reflecting uncertainty in the magnitude of warming from an emerging El Niño—61% likely per NOAA's April outlook—and persistently high sea surface temperatures, second-highest on record in April. Copernicus ERA5 data shows April 2026 at 1.43ºC above pre-industrial, third-warmest April, but ENSO-neutral conditions through early May introduce variability in model ensembles forecasting above-normal temperatures for May–July. Key differentiators include the weak El Niño's potential 0.1–0.2ºC boost versus possible transient cooling from stratospheric influences; watch NOAA's May 14 ENSO update and preliminary mid-month satellite observations for shifts ahead of the full June report.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 41%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
<1.10ºC 11%
$24,061 Vol.
$24,061 Vol.
10. Juni 2026
<1.10ºC
11%
1.10–1.14ºC
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
41%
1.20–1.24ºC
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
4%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 41%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
<1.10ºC 11%
$24,061 Vol.
$24,061 Vol.
10. Juni 2026
<1.10ºC
$9,739 Vol.
11%
1.10–1.14ºC
$1,360 Vol.
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
$2,511 Vol.
41%
1.20–1.24ºC
$1,975 Vol.
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
$3,098 Vol.
4%
>1.29ºC
$5,377 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 1.10–1.14ºC (40%) and 1.15–1.19ºC (39.5%) for May 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly versus the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, reflecting uncertainty in the magnitude of warming from an emerging El Niño—61% likely per NOAA's April outlook—and persistently high sea surface temperatures, second-highest on record in April. Copernicus ERA5 data shows April 2026 at 1.43ºC above pre-industrial, third-warmest April, but ENSO-neutral conditions through early May introduce variability in model ensembles forecasting above-normal temperatures for May–July. Key differentiators include the weak El Niño's potential 0.1–0.2ºC boost versus possible transient cooling from stratospheric influences; watch NOAA's May 14 ENSO update and preliminary mid-month satellite observations for shifts ahead of the full June report.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volumen
$24,061Enddatum
10. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 1.10–1.14ºC (40%) and 1.15–1.19ºC (39.5%) for May 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly versus the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, reflecting uncertainty in the magnitude of warming from an emerging El Niño—61% likely per NOAA's April outlook—and persistently high sea surface temperatures, second-highest on record in April. Copernicus ERA5 data shows April 2026 at 1.43ºC above pre-industrial, third-warmest April, but ENSO-neutral conditions through early May introduce variability in model ensembles forecasting above-normal temperatures for May–July. Key differentiators include the weak El Niño's potential 0.1–0.2ºC boost versus possible transient cooling from stratospheric influences; watch NOAA's May 14 ENSO update and preliminary mid-month satellite observations for shifts ahead of the full June report.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$24,061Enddatum
10. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 1.10–1.14ºC (40%) and 1.15–1.19ºC (39.5%) for May 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly versus the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, reflecting uncertainty in the magnitude of warming from an emerging El Niño—61% likely per NOAA's April outlook—and persistently high sea surface temperatures, second-highest on record in April. Copernicus ERA5 data shows April 2026 at 1.43ºC above pre-industrial, third-warmest April, but ENSO-neutral conditions through early May introduce variability in model ensembles forecasting above-normal temperatures for May–July. Key differentiators include the weak El Niño's potential 0.1–0.2ºC boost versus possible transient cooling from stratospheric influences; watch NOAA's May 14 ENSO update and preliminary mid-month satellite observations for shifts ahead of the full June report.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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