Recent forecast consensus from major models such as ECMWF and GFS, reinforced by National Center for Meteorology guidance, shows persistent high pressure and strong solar insolation over the Red Sea coastal plain driving Jeddah’s daytime peak to 39–41°C on May 16. This aligns with the city’s May climatology, where historical maxima frequently reach the upper 30s amid light northwesterly winds that limit sea-breeze moderation. The market’s 100% implied probability for 39°C or higher reflects this tight model agreement and the absence of cooling factors like significant cloud cover or stronger onshore flow. Minor downward revisions remain possible if afternoon convection develops earlier than expected, though current ensemble spreads place such outcomes well below 1%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Jeddah on May 16?
39°C or higher 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$24,543 Vol.
$24,543 Vol.
29°C or below
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C or higher
Yes
39°C or higher 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$24,543 Vol.
$24,543 Vol.
29°C or below
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C or higher
Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 14, 2026, 12:37 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
Recent forecast consensus from major models such as ECMWF and GFS, reinforced by National Center for Meteorology guidance, shows persistent high pressure and strong solar insolation over the Red Sea coastal plain driving Jeddah’s daytime peak to 39–41°C on May 16. This aligns with the city’s May climatology, where historical maxima frequently reach the upper 30s amid light northwesterly winds that limit sea-breeze moderation. The market’s 100% implied probability for 39°C or higher reflects this tight model agreement and the absence of cooling factors like significant cloud cover or stronger onshore flow. Minor downward revisions remain possible if afternoon convection develops earlier than expected, though current ensemble spreads place such outcomes well below 1%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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