Recent National Weather Service model runs project overnight lows in Miami around 75–79°F for May 20, driven by moderate easterly flow and scattered subtropical moisture that limits radiational cooling. This keeps the 73°F-or-below bin and the 92°F-or-higher bin nearly tied, as ensemble spread in the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts still allows for either enhanced cloud cover dropping the minimum or clear skies and a warmer boundary layer pushing it above 90°F. Historical May climatology shows typical overnight minima near 73°F, but current sea-surface temperatures in the western Atlantic are 1–2°F above average, tilting the balance toward warmer extremes if steering patterns hold. Updated model guidance expected from the National Hurricane Center’s local office on May 18–19 will likely resolve the remaining uncertainty before resolution.