Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System, aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, converge on a daytime peak near 25°C for Shanghai on May 16 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. This scientific consensus positions the 25°C outcome as the market leader at 37.5% implied probability, with 24°C and 26°C outcomes holding substantial shares due to the typical spread in model guidance and historical May variability around 24–25°C averages. No significant atmospheric shifts have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter the outlook, keeping trader sentiment clustered tightly on these thresholds ahead of official observations from the Shanghai Pudong station.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 16?
25°C 38%
26°C 25%
24°C 20%
27°C 11%
$42,388 Vol.
$42,388 Vol.
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
3%
24°C
20%
25°C
38%
26°C
25%
27°C
11%
28°C
4%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 38%
26°C 25%
24°C 20%
27°C 11%
$42,388 Vol.
$42,388 Vol.
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
3%
24°C
20%
25°C
38%
26°C
25%
27°C
11%
28°C
4%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System, aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, converge on a daytime peak near 25°C for Shanghai on May 16 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. This scientific consensus positions the 25°C outcome as the market leader at 37.5% implied probability, with 24°C and 26°C outcomes holding substantial shares due to the typical spread in model guidance and historical May variability around 24–25°C averages. No significant atmospheric shifts have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter the outlook, keeping trader sentiment clustered tightly on these thresholds ahead of official observations from the Shanghai Pudong station.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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