Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble means from the GFS and ECMWF place the overnight low in New York City on May 19 in the low-to-mid 60s, with the tight clustering of market-implied odds across the 62–67°F bins reflecting modest model spread in a transitional spring air mass. Clear skies and light southerly flow are expected to limit radiational cooling while urban heat retention at Central Park and LaGuardia Airport supports minimums several degrees above climatological averages for mid-May. The narrow probability gaps among leading outcomes highlight how small shifts in dew-point advection or boundary-layer mixing could tip resolution between adjacent two-degree ranges, with the next high-resolution model runs expected to narrow the uncertainty ahead of the overnight period.