The Japan Meteorological Agency forecast has anchored trader consensus on a 17°C overnight low for Tokyo on May 16, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies and minimal radiative cooling. This setup aligns closely with mid-May climatology for the region, where typical minimums hover near 14–16°C but shift upward under stable anticyclonic flow. Operational model runs showed little spread, keeping the projected low tightly centered on 17°C with only modest uncertainty from minor cloud intrusions or local urban heat effects. The resulting 99.8% market-implied probability reflects this narrow forecast window; resolution hinges on the official Tokyo observation, which could still shift to 16°C or 18°C if final data deviate by 1°C due to measurement timing or rounding conventions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Tokio am 16. Mai?
17°C 99.8%
13°C oder darunter <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$73,872 Vol.
$73,872 Vol.
13°C oder darunter
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
100%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C oder höher
<1%
17°C 99.8%
13°C oder darunter <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$73,872 Vol.
$73,872 Vol.
13°C oder darunter
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
100%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThe Japan Meteorological Agency forecast has anchored trader consensus on a 17°C overnight low for Tokyo on May 16, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies and minimal radiative cooling. This setup aligns closely with mid-May climatology for the region, where typical minimums hover near 14–16°C but shift upward under stable anticyclonic flow. Operational model runs showed little spread, keeping the projected low tightly centered on 17°C with only modest uncertainty from minor cloud intrusions or local urban heat effects. The resulting 99.8% market-implied probability reflects this narrow forecast window; resolution hinges on the official Tokyo observation, which could still shift to 16°C or 18°C if final data deviate by 1°C due to measurement timing or rounding conventions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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