The market's decisive consensus on 15°C as Munich's highest temperature on May 15 stems from official surface observations by the German Weather Service, which recorded a precise daily maximum under a stable high-pressure regime with northwest winds limiting diurnal warming to modest levels. Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had consistently projected this outcome, citing partial cloud cover and a residual cool maritime air mass that suppressed readings below the mid-May climatological average of roughly 18°C. These verified station data, aligned across multiple Munich sites, anchor the market-implied odds. Only an unforeseen post-analysis correction to the observation record or a redefinition of the 24-hour measurement window could shift the result, though both remain statistically improbable given the robustness of the monitoring network.