Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated at 16:30 HKT on May 14, projects a maximum temperature range of 25–28°C for May 15 amid a trough of low pressure ushering mainly cloudy conditions, occasional heavy showers, squally thunderstorms, south-to-southeast winds at force 3–4, and high relative humidity of 80–95%, driving trader consensus toward 28°C (42%) as the leading outcome reflecting the forecast ceiling. The 31.5% implied odds for 29°C or higher capture potential for rapid clearing or under-forecasted insolation given seasonal above-normal temperature outlooks for May–July 2026 and historical mid-May highs averaging 28–29°C, while 27°C (25.5%) hedges against persistent cloud cover. New observational data and evening forecast refinements could shift probabilities before resolution based on official HKO measurements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Hongkong am 15. Mai?
Höchste Temperatur in Hongkong am 15. Mai?
28°C 43%
29°C oder höher 30%
27°C 26%
26°C 4.9%
$28,534 Vol.
$28,534 Vol.
19°C oder weniger
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
26%
28°C
43%
29°C oder höher
30%
28°C 43%
29°C oder höher 30%
27°C 26%
26°C 4.9%
$28,534 Vol.
$28,534 Vol.
19°C oder weniger
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
26%
28°C
43%
29°C oder höher
30%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated at 16:30 HKT on May 14, projects a maximum temperature range of 25–28°C for May 15 amid a trough of low pressure ushering mainly cloudy conditions, occasional heavy showers, squally thunderstorms, south-to-southeast winds at force 3–4, and high relative humidity of 80–95%, driving trader consensus toward 28°C (42%) as the leading outcome reflecting the forecast ceiling. The 31.5% implied odds for 29°C or higher capture potential for rapid clearing or under-forecasted insolation given seasonal above-normal temperature outlooks for May–July 2026 and historical mid-May highs averaging 28–29°C, while 27°C (25.5%) hedges against persistent cloud cover. New observational data and evening forecast refinements could shift probabilities before resolution based on official HKO measurements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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