Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a 25°C high temperature in Chengdu on May 14, driven by real-time observations from the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport station— the market's official resolution source—showing a midday peak of 25°C under persistent overcast skies and light showers. China Meteorological Administration data confirms cloud-induced suppression of solar heating, with high humidity in the Sichuan Basin preventing typical convective warming; this aligns with UK Met Office guidance listing light showers and a 25°C maximum, cooler than the mid-May climatological average of 27-28°C. While forecast models like GFS initially hinted at 27-29°C, updated runs and hourly readings locked in the lower outcome. Scenarios challenging this would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst before evening cooldown, with final CMA daily summary expected soon.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 14?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 14?
25°C 100.0%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$65,044 Vol.
$65,044 Vol.
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
25°C 100.0%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$65,044 Vol.
$65,044 Vol.
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a 25°C high temperature in Chengdu on May 14, driven by real-time observations from the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport station— the market's official resolution source—showing a midday peak of 25°C under persistent overcast skies and light showers. China Meteorological Administration data confirms cloud-induced suppression of solar heating, with high humidity in the Sichuan Basin preventing typical convective warming; this aligns with UK Met Office guidance listing light showers and a 25°C maximum, cooler than the mid-May climatological average of 27-28°C. While forecast models like GFS initially hinted at 27-29°C, updated runs and hourly readings locked in the lower outcome. Scenarios challenging this would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst before evening cooldown, with final CMA daily summary expected soon.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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