Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a highest temperature of 22°C at 36%, closely trailed by 23°C (28%) and 21°C (21%), reflecting tight agreement in the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts centering on 22°C for Moscow on May 14 amid a warm anomaly exceeding mid-May climatological norms of 17-19°C by 3-5°C. This positioning stems from recent high-pressure ridging promoting warm air advection and solar heating after morning fog dissipation, as noted in Hydrometcenter updates from May 12 projecting afternoon peaks of 20-23°C. Differentiating factors include model spreads of 1-2°C driven by uncertainties in low-level cloud persistence, light southerly winds mixing boundary layers, and urban heat island amplification; new hourly observations from Vnukovo Airport through peak heating (1400-1600 UTC) could tip the balance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Moscow on May 14?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 14?
22°C 41%
23°C 32%
21°C 12%
24°C 7.1%
$17,175 Vol.
$17,175 Vol.
14. Mai 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
12%
22°C
41%
23°C
32%
24°C
14%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 41%
23°C 32%
21°C 12%
24°C 7.1%
$17,175 Vol.
$17,175 Vol.
14. Mai 2026
17°C or below
$2,387 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,638 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,689 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,146 Vol.
1%
21°C
$880 Vol.
12%
22°C
$720 Vol.
41%
23°C
$819 Vol.
32%
24°C
$1,151 Vol.
14%
25°C
$2,035 Vol.
1%
26°C
$601 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$2,005 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a highest temperature of 22°C at 36%, closely trailed by 23°C (28%) and 21°C (21%), reflecting tight agreement in the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts centering on 22°C for Moscow on May 14 amid a warm anomaly exceeding mid-May climatological norms of 17-19°C by 3-5°C. This positioning stems from recent high-pressure ridging promoting warm air advection and solar heating after morning fog dissipation, as noted in Hydrometcenter updates from May 12 projecting afternoon peaks of 20-23°C. Differentiating factors include model spreads of 1-2°C driven by uncertainties in low-level cloud persistence, light southerly winds mixing boundary layers, and urban heat island amplification; new hourly observations from Vnukovo Airport through peak heating (1400-1600 UTC) could tip the balance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 12, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volumen
$17,175Enddatum
14. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 12, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a highest temperature of 22°C at 36%, closely trailed by 23°C (28%) and 21°C (21%), reflecting tight agreement in the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts centering on 22°C for Moscow on May 14 amid a warm anomaly exceeding mid-May climatological norms of 17-19°C by 3-5°C. This positioning stems from recent high-pressure ridging promoting warm air advection and solar heating after morning fog dissipation, as noted in Hydrometcenter updates from May 12 projecting afternoon peaks of 20-23°C. Differentiating factors include model spreads of 1-2°C driven by uncertainties in low-level cloud persistence, light southerly winds mixing boundary layers, and urban heat island amplification; new hourly observations from Vnukovo Airport through peak heating (1400-1600 UTC) could tip the balance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$17,175Enddatum
14. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 12, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a highest temperature of 22°C at 36%, closely trailed by 23°C (28%) and 21°C (21%), reflecting tight agreement in the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts centering on 22°C for Moscow on May 14 amid a warm anomaly exceeding mid-May climatological norms of 17-19°C by 3-5°C. This positioning stems from recent high-pressure ridging promoting warm air advection and solar heating after morning fog dissipation, as noted in Hydrometcenter updates from May 12 projecting afternoon peaks of 20-23°C. Differentiating factors include model spreads of 1-2°C driven by uncertainties in low-level cloud persistence, light southerly winds mixing boundary layers, and urban heat island amplification; new hourly observations from Vnukovo Airport through peak heating (1400-1600 UTC) could tip the balance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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