The dominant 97.2% market-implied probability for a 13°C maximum in Wellington on May 16 stems from the latest MetService short-range model consensus, which projects persistent southerly winds of 20–30 km/h combined with extensive cloud cover that suppresses solar heating and advects cooler maritime air across the region. This setup mirrors the confirmed 13°C peak recorded at Wellington International Airport on May 15 under identical synoptic conditions, remaining well within the city’s mid-May climatology where daily highs typically average 14–16°C but frequently fall to 13°C or lower when southerly flow dominates. A late northerly wind shift or clearing skies could allow modest warming toward 14°C, yet current ensemble guidance shows no such change before the daily maximum is observed.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Wellington on May 16?
13°C 98.5%
14°C 2.9%
15°C <1%
16°C or higher <1%
$38,499 Vol.
$38,499 Vol.
13°C
99%
14°C
3%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
13°C 98.5%
14°C 2.9%
15°C <1%
16°C or higher <1%
$38,499 Vol.
$38,499 Vol.
13°C
99%
14°C
3%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 14, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...The dominant 97.2% market-implied probability for a 13°C maximum in Wellington on May 16 stems from the latest MetService short-range model consensus, which projects persistent southerly winds of 20–30 km/h combined with extensive cloud cover that suppresses solar heating and advects cooler maritime air across the region. This setup mirrors the confirmed 13°C peak recorded at Wellington International Airport on May 15 under identical synoptic conditions, remaining well within the city’s mid-May climatology where daily highs typically average 14–16°C but frequently fall to 13°C or lower when southerly flow dominates. A late northerly wind shift or clearing skies could allow modest warming toward 14°C, yet current ensemble guidance shows no such change before the daily maximum is observed.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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