Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles for Paris's overnight low on May 19, with implied probabilities nearly split between 15°C or higher (50%) and the 6–14°C range (45.5% each), against climatological May 19 norms of around 10°C. Recent cool, unstable weather through May 11–17, featuring morning lows of 7–8°C and showers per Météo-France guidance, has tempered expectations, but ECMWF and GFS models now diverge on a possible high-pressure ridge bringing clearer skies and southerly flow for late-week warming. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence versus radiative cooling under high pressure; daily model updates through May 18 will clarify the balance before resolution based on official Paris observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Paris am 19. Mai?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Paris am 19. Mai?
11°C 57%
15°C oder höher 50%
8°C 46%
9°C 46%
NEU
NEU
19. Mai 2026
5°C oder weniger
1%
6°C
10%
7°C
44%
8°C
46%
9°C
46%
10°C
46%
11°C
57%
12°C
46%
13°C
44%
14°C
44%
15°C oder höher
50%
11°C 57%
15°C oder höher 50%
8°C 46%
9°C 46%
NEU
NEU
19. Mai 2026
5°C oder weniger
$10 Vol.
1%
6°C
$10 Vol.
10%
7°C
$0 Vol.
44%
8°C
$0 Vol.
46%
9°C
$0 Vol.
46%
10°C
$0 Vol.
46%
11°C
$0 Vol.
57%
12°C
$0 Vol.
46%
13°C
$0 Vol.
44%
14°C
$0 Vol.
44%
15°C oder höher
$26 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles for Paris's overnight low on May 19, with implied probabilities nearly split between 15°C or higher (50%) and the 6–14°C range (45.5% each), against climatological May 19 norms of around 10°C. Recent cool, unstable weather through May 11–17, featuring morning lows of 7–8°C and showers per Météo-France guidance, has tempered expectations, but ECMWF and GFS models now diverge on a possible high-pressure ridge bringing clearer skies and southerly flow for late-week warming. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence versus radiative cooling under high pressure; daily model updates through May 18 will clarify the balance before resolution based on official Paris observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$46Enddatum
19. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles for Paris's overnight low on May 19, with implied probabilities nearly split between 15°C or higher (50%) and the 6–14°C range (45.5% each), against climatological May 19 norms of around 10°C. Recent cool, unstable weather through May 11–17, featuring morning lows of 7–8°C and showers per Météo-France guidance, has tempered expectations, but ECMWF and GFS models now diverge on a possible high-pressure ridge bringing clearer skies and southerly flow for late-week warming. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence versus radiative cooling under high pressure; daily model updates through May 18 will clarify the balance before resolution based on official Paris observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$46Enddatum
19. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles for Paris's overnight low on May 19, with implied probabilities nearly split between 15°C or higher (50%) and the 6–14°C range (45.5% each), against climatological May 19 norms of around 10°C. Recent cool, unstable weather through May 11–17, featuring morning lows of 7–8°C and showers per Météo-France guidance, has tempered expectations, but ECMWF and GFS models now diverge on a possible high-pressure ridge bringing clearer skies and southerly flow for late-week warming. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence versus radiative cooling under high pressure; daily model updates through May 18 will clarify the balance before resolution based on official Paris observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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