Météo-France's latest short-range forecast pins Paris's morning low at 5°C on May 15 amid overcast skies, scattered showers, and northerly cold air advection, anchoring trader consensus at 60.5% implied probability for a 5°C minimum. Persistent cloud cover from an unstable Atlantic pattern suppresses daytime warming to around 14°C maxima while limiting radiative cooling overnight, with ECMWF ensemble guidance showing a tight spread centered 4–6°C that supports 26.5% odds on 4°C. This setup marks a notable dip below mid-May climatological norms of 9–10°C lows, driven by a blocking high steering chilly air masses southward. Official station readings from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve later today, though model agreement tempers major shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Paris am 15. Mai?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Paris am 15. Mai?
5°C 72.2%
4°C 34.2%
3°C 5.0%
2°C <1%
$11,798 Vol.
$11,798 Vol.
-2°C oder darunter
<1%
-1°C
<1%
0°C
<1%
1°C
1%
2°C
1%
3°C
5%
4°C
27%
5°C
60%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
5°C 72.2%
4°C 34.2%
3°C 5.0%
2°C <1%
$11,798 Vol.
$11,798 Vol.
-2°C oder darunter
<1%
-1°C
<1%
0°C
<1%
1°C
1%
2°C
1%
3°C
5%
4°C
27%
5°C
60%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Météo-France's latest short-range forecast pins Paris's morning low at 5°C on May 15 amid overcast skies, scattered showers, and northerly cold air advection, anchoring trader consensus at 60.5% implied probability for a 5°C minimum. Persistent cloud cover from an unstable Atlantic pattern suppresses daytime warming to around 14°C maxima while limiting radiative cooling overnight, with ECMWF ensemble guidance showing a tight spread centered 4–6°C that supports 26.5% odds on 4°C. This setup marks a notable dip below mid-May climatological norms of 9–10°C lows, driven by a blocking high steering chilly air masses southward. Official station readings from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve later today, though model agreement tempers major shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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