Current ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, aligned with Météo-France guidance, point to an overnight low of 5–7°C in Paris on May 16 amid a persistent northerly airflow and extensive cloud cover that suppresses both daytime heating and nocturnal radiational cooling. These conditions have produced a cool spell atypical for mid-May, when climatological averages near 9–10°C, tightening market-implied probabilities around the 5°C, 6°C, and 7°C outcomes. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact wind speeds creates the narrow differentiation among these leading bins, with updated hourly observations and afternoon model runs expected to refine the precise minimum before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Paris am 16. Mai?
5°C 37%
6°C 37%
7°C 36%
8°C 3.7%
0°C oder darunter
<1%
1°C
1%
2°C
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
3%
5°C
25%
6°C
29%
7°C
29%
8°C
4%
9°C
<1%
10°C oder höher
<1%
5°C 37%
6°C 37%
7°C 36%
8°C 3.7%
0°C oder darunter
<1%
1°C
1%
2°C
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
3%
5°C
25%
6°C
29%
7°C
29%
8°C
4%
9°C
<1%
10°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Current ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, aligned with Météo-France guidance, point to an overnight low of 5–7°C in Paris on May 16 amid a persistent northerly airflow and extensive cloud cover that suppresses both daytime heating and nocturnal radiational cooling. These conditions have produced a cool spell atypical for mid-May, when climatological averages near 9–10°C, tightening market-implied probabilities around the 5°C, 6°C, and 7°C outcomes. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact wind speeds creates the narrow differentiation among these leading bins, with updated hourly observations and afternoon model runs expected to refine the precise minimum before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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