Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Central Weather Administration (CWA) and global model forecasts for Taipei's May 15 high temperature, with ensembles from GFS and ECMWF projecting 26–29°C amid lingering effects of a weak cold front that cooled northern Taiwan on May 13. The slight edge to 27°C stems from consensus on partial cloud cover limiting afternoon insolation, moderate southerly winds fostering sea-breeze moderation, and high humidity near 70% capping dry-bulb peaks below seasonal May norms of 29°C. Differentiation hinges on cloud evolution—persistent overcast favors 26°C, while quicker clearing boosts 28–29°C odds. CWA's final update expected midday May 14 could refine this, as observations resolve via official Songshan station readings.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Taipei on May 15?
Highest temperature in Taipei on May 15?
27°C 30%
26°C 23%
28°C 22%
29°C 20%
$17,883 Vol.
$17,883 Vol.
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
5%
26°C
23%
27°C
30%
28°C
22%
29°C
20%
30°C
3%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 30%
26°C 23%
28°C 22%
29°C 20%
$17,883 Vol.
$17,883 Vol.
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
5%
26°C
23%
27°C
30%
28°C
22%
29°C
20%
30°C
3%
31°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Central Weather Administration (CWA) and global model forecasts for Taipei's May 15 high temperature, with ensembles from GFS and ECMWF projecting 26–29°C amid lingering effects of a weak cold front that cooled northern Taiwan on May 13. The slight edge to 27°C stems from consensus on partial cloud cover limiting afternoon insolation, moderate southerly winds fostering sea-breeze moderation, and high humidity near 70% capping dry-bulb peaks below seasonal May norms of 29°C. Differentiation hinges on cloud evolution—persistent overcast favors 26°C, while quicker clearing boosts 28–29°C odds. CWA's final update expected midday May 14 could refine this, as observations resolve via official Songshan station readings.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen