Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on May 15, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting a daytime maximum around 25°C amid light rain and mostly cloudy skies, with morning lows near 18°C. This aligns with mid-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin, where average highs hit 27°C and topographic warmth trapping sustains peaks even under overcast conditions—evidenced by May 14's observed 25°C high in similar weather. Model ensembles from CMA and international sources show tight agreement on limited cooling. Realistic challenges include prolonged heavy precipitation or sudden cool air advection suppressing afternoon heating to 22°C, though upper-level ridge stability makes this unlikely. Hourly observations from Shuangliu Airport station will finalize resolution via official records.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Chengdu am 15. Mai?
23°C oder höher 100.0%
13°C oder darunter <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$39,695 Vol.
$39,695 Vol.
13°C oder darunter
Nein
14°C
Nein
15°C
Nein
16°C
Nein
17°C
Nein
18°C
Nein
19°C
Nein
20°C
Nein
21°C
Nein
22°C
Nein
23°C oder höher
Ja
23°C oder höher 100.0%
13°C oder darunter <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$39,695 Vol.
$39,695 Vol.
13°C oder darunter
Nein
14°C
Nein
15°C
Nein
16°C
Nein
17°C
Nein
18°C
Nein
19°C
Nein
20°C
Nein
21°C
Nein
22°C
Nein
23°C oder höher
Ja
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on May 15, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting a daytime maximum around 25°C amid light rain and mostly cloudy skies, with morning lows near 18°C. This aligns with mid-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin, where average highs hit 27°C and topographic warmth trapping sustains peaks even under overcast conditions—evidenced by May 14's observed 25°C high in similar weather. Model ensembles from CMA and international sources show tight agreement on limited cooling. Realistic challenges include prolonged heavy precipitation or sudden cool air advection suppressing afternoon heating to 22°C, though upper-level ridge stability makes this unlikely. Hourly observations from Shuangliu Airport station will finalize resolution via official records.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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