BMKG's latest forecast update on May 14 projects cloudy conditions with possible light rain for Jakarta on May 16, capping official maximum temperatures at 31°C amid 68–97% humidity and mid-May convective activity risks. Yet trader consensus prices 33°C at 29.5% and 32°C at 29.0% implied probabilities, driven by urban heat island effects amplifying city-center readings by 1–2°C above rural stations, high equatorial solar insolation during the intensifying dry season influenced by emerging El Niño signals, and global model runs (GFS, ECMWF) hinting at partial clearing for brief peaks. Key differentiators include afternoon thunderstorm timing—early suppression versus late allowing midday heating—and historical May averages near 32°C; watch BMKG hourly reports and overnight forecasts for shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Jakarta on May 16?
Highest temperature in Jakarta on May 16?
33°C 31%
32°C 29%
31°C 15%
34°C 12%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
7%
31°C
15%
32°C
29%
33°C
31%
34°C
12%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
1%
33°C 31%
32°C 29%
31°C 15%
34°C 12%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
7%
31°C
15%
32°C
29%
33°C
31%
34°C
12%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Halim Perdanakusuma Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/id/jakarta/WIHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 14, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/id/jakarta/WIHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Halim Perdanakusuma Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/id/jakarta/WIHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/id/jakarta/WIHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...BMKG's latest forecast update on May 14 projects cloudy conditions with possible light rain for Jakarta on May 16, capping official maximum temperatures at 31°C amid 68–97% humidity and mid-May convective activity risks. Yet trader consensus prices 33°C at 29.5% and 32°C at 29.0% implied probabilities, driven by urban heat island effects amplifying city-center readings by 1–2°C above rural stations, high equatorial solar insolation during the intensifying dry season influenced by emerging El Niño signals, and global model runs (GFS, ECMWF) hinting at partial clearing for brief peaks. Key differentiators include afternoon thunderstorm timing—early suppression versus late allowing midday heating—and historical May averages near 32°C; watch BMKG hourly reports and overnight forecasts for shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen