Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Istanbul's May 15 high temperature, clustering around 20-22°C amid typical mid-May variability. Official historical data from sources like WeatherSpark and AccuWeather indicate average May highs of 21-22°C (70°F), with a standard deviation of about 3°C driven by sea breeze influences from the Sea of Marmara and Black Sea, afternoon cloud development, and weak high-pressure ridging over the eastern Mediterranean. No major developments like cold fronts or heat surges have occurred in the past week, leaving model disagreements on boundary layer mixing and insolation as key differentiators between the leading outcomes. Updated runs from NOAA, ECMWF, and Turkish State Meteorological Service expected within hours could refine probabilities as actual observations from Istanbul Airport resolve the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 15?
22°C or higher 31%
20°C 29%
21°C 27%
19°C 13%
NEU
$10,439 Vol.
NEU
$10,439 Vol.
15. Mai 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
13%
20°C
29%
21°C
27%
22°C or higher
31%
22°C or higher 31%
20°C 29%
21°C 27%
19°C 13%
NEU
$10,439 Vol.
NEU
$10,439 Vol.
15. Mai 2026
12°C or below
$523 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$750 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$705 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,034 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,832 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,001 Vol.
1%
18°C
$1,539 Vol.
2%
19°C
$971 Vol.
13%
20°C
$955 Vol.
29%
21°C
$449 Vol.
27%
22°C or higher
$680 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Istanbul's May 15 high temperature, clustering around 20-22°C amid typical mid-May variability. Official historical data from sources like WeatherSpark and AccuWeather indicate average May highs of 21-22°C (70°F), with a standard deviation of about 3°C driven by sea breeze influences from the Sea of Marmara and Black Sea, afternoon cloud development, and weak high-pressure ridging over the eastern Mediterranean. No major developments like cold fronts or heat surges have occurred in the past week, leaving model disagreements on boundary layer mixing and insolation as key differentiators between the leading outcomes. Updated runs from NOAA, ECMWF, and Turkish State Meteorological Service expected within hours could refine probabilities as actual observations from Istanbul Airport resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volumen
$10,439Enddatum
15. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Istanbul's May 15 high temperature, clustering around 20-22°C amid typical mid-May variability. Official historical data from sources like WeatherSpark and AccuWeather indicate average May highs of 21-22°C (70°F), with a standard deviation of about 3°C driven by sea breeze influences from the Sea of Marmara and Black Sea, afternoon cloud development, and weak high-pressure ridging over the eastern Mediterranean. No major developments like cold fronts or heat surges have occurred in the past week, leaving model disagreements on boundary layer mixing and insolation as key differentiators between the leading outcomes. Updated runs from NOAA, ECMWF, and Turkish State Meteorological Service expected within hours could refine probabilities as actual observations from Istanbul Airport resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$10,439Enddatum
15. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Istanbul's May 15 high temperature, clustering around 20-22°C amid typical mid-May variability. Official historical data from sources like WeatherSpark and AccuWeather indicate average May highs of 21-22°C (70°F), with a standard deviation of about 3°C driven by sea breeze influences from the Sea of Marmara and Black Sea, afternoon cloud development, and weak high-pressure ridging over the eastern Mediterranean. No major developments like cold fronts or heat surges have occurred in the past week, leaving model disagreements on boundary layer mixing and insolation as key differentiators between the leading outcomes. Updated runs from NOAA, ECMWF, and Turkish State Meteorological Service expected within hours could refine probabilities as actual observations from Istanbul Airport resolve the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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