National Weather Service and private forecast models indicate Miami’s overnight low on May 16 will settle near 76–77°F, driven by typical mid-May subtropical high pressure, light southeast winds, and elevated boundary-layer moisture with no cold fronts or dry-air intrusions nearby. These stable conditions limit nocturnal radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures above the seasonal average low of 74°F while preventing the brief dips sometimes seen in spring. Traders have assigned the highest implied probability (35.5%) to the 76–77°F bin, followed by 74–75°F at 24.5%, reflecting model consensus on modest variability from local urban heat effects and slight wind shifts. Updated guidance through midday shows little deviation, though any unexpected increase in cloud cover or wind could nudge the outcome one degree lower before official ASOS resolution at Miami International Airport.