Recent global temperature data indicate May 2026 is tracking toward the second-highest anomaly on record, driven by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and lingering ocean heat from prior El Niño conditions. Early-month readings from Copernicus and NOAA place the global mean surface temperature anomaly near 1.10–1.14 °C above the pre-industrial baseline, consistent with post-peak ENSO moderation that has kept monthly values elevated yet below the 2023–2024 extremes. Developing El Niño signals, with an 82 % chance of emergence by July according to the Climate Prediction Center, add upward pressure but have not yet produced the strongest forcing for this specific month. Historical analogs show Mays following strong El Niño events often rank second or third rather than first. Full-month official rankings from NOAA and Berkeley Earth, due in early June, will resolve the market and could shift if late-May sea-surface temperatures accelerate.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 67%
1st hottest 29%
3rd hottest 5.2%
4th or lower 1.1%
$104,280 Vol.
$104,280 Vol.
10. Juni 2026
1st hottest
29%
2nd hottest
67%
3rd hottest
5%
4th or lower
1%
2nd hottest 67%
1st hottest 29%
3rd hottest 5.2%
4th or lower 1.1%
$104,280 Vol.
$104,280 Vol.
10. Juni 2026
1st hottest
$11,825 Vol.
29%
2nd hottest
$3,370 Vol.
67%
3rd hottest
$39,453 Vol.
5%
4th or lower
$49,632 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent global temperature data indicate May 2026 is tracking toward the second-highest anomaly on record, driven by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and lingering ocean heat from prior El Niño conditions. Early-month readings from Copernicus and NOAA place the global mean surface temperature anomaly near 1.10–1.14 °C above the pre-industrial baseline, consistent with post-peak ENSO moderation that has kept monthly values elevated yet below the 2023–2024 extremes. Developing El Niño signals, with an 82 % chance of emergence by July according to the Climate Prediction Center, add upward pressure but have not yet produced the strongest forcing for this specific month. Historical analogs show Mays following strong El Niño events often rank second or third rather than first. Full-month official rankings from NOAA and Berkeley Earth, due in early June, will resolve the market and could shift if late-May sea-surface temperatures accelerate.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
Volumen
$104,280Enddatum
10. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent global temperature data indicate May 2026 is tracking toward the second-highest anomaly on record, driven by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and lingering ocean heat from prior El Niño conditions. Early-month readings from Copernicus and NOAA place the global mean surface temperature anomaly near 1.10–1.14 °C above the pre-industrial baseline, consistent with post-peak ENSO moderation that has kept monthly values elevated yet below the 2023–2024 extremes. Developing El Niño signals, with an 82 % chance of emergence by July according to the Climate Prediction Center, add upward pressure but have not yet produced the strongest forcing for this specific month. Historical analogs show Mays following strong El Niño events often rank second or third rather than first. Full-month official rankings from NOAA and Berkeley Earth, due in early June, will resolve the market and could shift if late-May sea-surface temperatures accelerate.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$104,280Enddatum
10. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global temperature data indicate May 2026 is tracking toward the second-highest anomaly on record, driven by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and lingering ocean heat from prior El Niño conditions. Early-month readings from Copernicus and NOAA place the global mean surface temperature anomaly near 1.10–1.14 °C above the pre-industrial baseline, consistent with post-peak ENSO moderation that has kept monthly values elevated yet below the 2023–2024 extremes. Developing El Niño signals, with an 82 % chance of emergence by July according to the Climate Prediction Center, add upward pressure but have not yet produced the strongest forcing for this specific month. Historical analogs show Mays following strong El Niño events often rank second or third rather than first. Full-month official rankings from NOAA and Berkeley Earth, due in early June, will resolve the market and could shift if late-May sea-surface temperatures accelerate.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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