**Argentina's official USD exchange rate (USD/ARS) has traded near 1,507 pesos per dollar in mid-September 2026, following a gradual depreciation path under the Milei administration's managed regime.** Analyst surveys, including the BCRA's REM, place the year-end 2026 consensus around 1,630, while broader forecasts from FocusEconomics and others cluster near 1,645–1,700, implying roughly 12–13% annual weakening against the dollar. This pace remains below trailing inflation (currently around 33% y/y, with monthly prints near 1.7–2.2%), reflecting the administration's focus on reserve accumulation, fiscal surpluses, and a crawling adjustment that has slowed from earlier monthly rates. **Market-implied odds heavily favor the 1,600+ bucket because trader positioning aligns with these forward-looking estimates and the expectation that disinflation will proceed gradually rather than abruptly.** The 2027 budget submission reinforces policy continuity, projecting 4% GDP growth and 18% inflation next year alongside an average exchange rate near 1,728, while IMF baselines anticipate end-2026 inflation near 25% alongside steady reserve building. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming inflation releases, BCRA communications on the monetary framework, and any adjustments to the crawl rate or band parameters that could alter the depreciation trajectory before year-end. Persistent inflation inertia and relative price adjustments continue to anchor expectations for further nominal weakening.