Argentina’s official USD/ARS exchange rate, currently near 1,395, is shaped by the crawling-band regime introduced in January 2026, which expands the upper limit monthly in line with lagged inflation. With annual inflation running at 33 percent in February and consensus forecasts pointing to roughly 30 percent for the full year, the managed pace of peso depreciation supports trader pricing that assigns the highest implied probability—32.5 percent—to an end-2026 close below 1,600. Reserve accumulation, bolstered by IMF disbursements and U.S. Treasury support, has reduced immediate devaluation pressure, while ongoing fiscal surplus and labor reforms continue to anchor expectations. Yet the broad probability distribution across brackets above 1,700 reflects residual uncertainty around monthly CPI prints, external debt service of nearly $20 billion this year, and the scope for further band widening if disinflation stalls.