**Elevated headline inflation at 3.0% year-over-year in August, driven by persistent energy prices amid Middle East tensions, has shifted trader sentiment toward a possible 25-basis-point hike at the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision, now priced at roughly 37% probability versus a 63% chance of no change.** The policy rate has remained at 2.25% through seven consecutive holds, with core measures staying near the 2% target and labor market conditions still soft despite recent job gains and a Q2 GDP rebound. New U.S. tariffs add downside risks to growth, supporting the majority view for a hold even as some economists highlight the need for “insurance” tightening to counter imported inflation and align with a stronger Federal Reserve stance. The upcoming Monetary Policy Report will provide fresh forecasts to clarify the balance of risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeine Änderung 63.3%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 37.5%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte <1%
$90,911 Vol.
$90,911 Vol.
27. Okt. 2026
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
38%
Keine Änderung
63%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung 63.3%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 37.5%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte <1%
$90,911 Vol.
$90,911 Vol.
27. Okt. 2026
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$11,509 Vol.
<1%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$23,578 Vol.
38%
Keine Änderung
$36,679 Vol.
63%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$15,055 Vol.
<1%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$4,089 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.**Elevated headline inflation at 3.0% year-over-year in August, driven by persistent energy prices amid Middle East tensions, has shifted trader sentiment toward a possible 25-basis-point hike at the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision, now priced at roughly 37% probability versus a 63% chance of no change.**
The policy rate has remained at 2.25% through seven consecutive holds, with core measures staying near the 2% target and labor market conditions still soft despite recent job gains and a Q2 GDP rebound. New U.S. tariffs add downside risks to growth, supporting the majority view for a hold even as some economists highlight the need for “insurance” tightening to counter imported inflation and align with a stronger Federal Reserve stance. The upcoming Monetary Policy Report will provide fresh forecasts to clarify the balance of risks.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
Volumen
$90,911Enddatum
28. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.**Elevated headline inflation at 3.0% year-over-year in August, driven by persistent energy prices amid Middle East tensions, has shifted trader sentiment toward a possible 25-basis-point hike at the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision, now priced at roughly 37% probability versus a 63% chance of no change.**
The policy rate has remained at 2.25% through seven consecutive holds, with core measures staying near the 2% target and labor market conditions still soft despite recent job gains and a Q2 GDP rebound. New U.S. tariffs add downside risks to growth, supporting the majority view for a hold even as some economists highlight the need for “insurance” tightening to counter imported inflation and align with a stronger Federal Reserve stance. The upcoming Monetary Policy Report will provide fresh forecasts to clarify the balance of risks.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Volumen
$90,911Enddatum
28. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated headline inflation at 3.0% year-over-year in August, driven by persistent energy prices amid Middle East tensions, has shifted trader sentiment toward a possible 25-basis-point hike at the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision, now priced at roughly 37% probability versus a 63% chance of no change.** The policy rate has remained at 2.25% through seven consecutive holds, with core measures staying near the 2% target and labor market conditions still soft despite recent job gains and a Q2 GDP rebound. New U.S. tariffs add downside risks to growth, supporting the majority view for a hold even as some economists highlight the need for “insurance” tightening to counter imported inflation and align with a stronger Federal Reserve stance. The upcoming Monetary Policy Report will provide fresh forecasts to clarify the balance of risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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