Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the AfD holding a modest edge over the Greens, with the AfD typically at 17–19% and the Greens at 16–17% across surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey. The AfD has roughly doubled its 2023 result amid broader national gains tied to voter concerns over immigration, security, and economic performance. In Berlin, the race remains fragmented among the CDU, Linke, AfD, and Greens, with no two-party coalition projected to secure a majority. Other parties continue to maintain a firewall against AfD participation in government, limiting its path to power while sustaining its protest-vote momentum relative to the more stable but lower-polling Greens. These patterns underpin trader expectations that the AfD will finish ahead of the Greens.