Trader consensus prices the likelihood that Bill Gates will face criminal charges by June 30 at just 3.1%, driven by the complete absence of any announced federal or state investigations, indictments, or prosecutorial actions targeting him. No Department of Justice proceedings, special counsel appointments, or court filings have surfaced that align with such a timeline, consistent with historical patterns for private citizens outside active legal scrutiny. Resolution hinges on whether any charging document is issued before the cutoff. Late developments such as newly unsealed complaints, unexpected agency referrals, or shifts in prosecutorial focus could still alter the outcome, though none have materialized in recent weeks.