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Politics·United Kingdom

Candidates in next Labour leadership election?

icon for Candidates in next Labour leadership election?
Politics·United Kingdom

Candidates in next Labour leadership election?

$122,698 Vol.

31. Dez. 2026
Polymarket

$122,698 Vol.

Polymarket

Keir Starmer

$39,444 Vol.

<1%

Wes Streeting

$16,129 Vol.

2%

Ed Miliband

$18,888 Vol.

1%

Angela Rayner

$13,008 Vol.

2%

Al Carns

$19,024 Vol.

2%

Andy Burnham

$16,204 Vol.

99%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot. If a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Labour Party rules require 20% of MPs to nominate a challenger or a resignation to trigger a leadership contest, with candidates needing MP status plus backing from constituency parties or affiliates. Public dissatisfaction after Labour's heavy losses in May 2026 local and devolved elections prompted Wes Streeting's resignation as health secretary and open leadership ambitions, alongside speculation around former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner. Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester mayor and consistent leader in member and public polling, is positioned as the frontrunner if he secures the Makerfield by-election on 18 June to regain a parliamentary seat. Keir Starmer has stated he will contest any challenge. These dynamics, combined with nomination thresholds and the by-election outcome, shape current trader assessments of viable contenders.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot.

If a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$122,698
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
May 13, 2026, 2:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot. If a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot. If a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Labour Party rules require 20% of MPs to nominate a challenger or a resignation to trigger a leadership contest, with candidates needing MP status plus backing from constituency parties or affiliates. Public dissatisfaction after Labour's heavy losses in May 2026 local and devolved elections prompted Wes Streeting's resignation as health secretary and open leadership ambitions, alongside speculation around former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner. Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester mayor and consistent leader in member and public polling, is positioned as the frontrunner if he secures the Makerfield by-election on 18 June to regain a parliamentary seat. Keir Starmer has stated he will contest any challenge. These dynamics, combined with nomination thresholds and the by-election outcome, shape current trader assessments of viable contenders.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot.

If a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$122,698
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
May 13, 2026, 2:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot. If a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Candidates in next Labour leadership election?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 6 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Andy Burnham" mit 99%, gefolgt von „Wes Streeting" mit 2%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 99¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 99% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Candidates in next Labour leadership election?" ist „Andy Burnham" mit 99%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 99% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Wes Streeting" mit 2%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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