Recent polling across both open 2026 Senate seats shows Democratic nominees holding narrow leads in competitive environments shaped by low presidential approval ratings and midterm dynamics. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed maintains a roughly three-to-five-point edge over Mike Rogers in September surveys, with several results falling inside the margin of error. In New Hampshire, Chris Pappas holds a comparable or slightly wider five-point advantage over John Sununu. Aggregators place Michigan’s average margin smaller than New Hampshire’s, supporting trader consensus that the Michigan race registers as the closer contest. Both nominees consolidated support after primaries, though independent voter splits and turnout patterns remain key variables ahead of November.