Traders see the 1000+ bracket leading at 22.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s October 2026 tweet volume because his established cadence—roughly 25–35 posts per day in recent September windows—can scale quickly with catalysts, while lower brackets cluster around 12% amid variable short-term pacing. Recent X activity shows moderation from 2024 peaks, with many three-day stretches settling in the 40–64 range and weekly totals between 160–199, reflecting steady commentary on xAI model releases, Starship timelines, Starlink expansion, and platform metrics rather than sustained spikes. Upcoming product updates, Tesla milestones, or X policy developments could accelerate reply volume and push totals higher, while quieter stretches would favor the crowded 800–959 field. The broad distribution underscores how external news cycles and Musk’s multi-company focus create high outcome uncertainty in this entertainment-adjacent social media market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert1000+ 23%
840-879 14%
800-839 13%
880-919 13%
$97,681 Vol.
$97,681 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
1%
680-699
1%
700-719
2%
720-739
2%
740-759
3%
760-779
4%
780-799
9%
800-839
13%
840-879
14%
880-919
13%
920-959
13%
960-999
13%
1000+
23%
1000+ 23%
840-879 14%
800-839 13%
880-919 13%
$97,681 Vol.
$97,681 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
1%
680-699
1%
700-719
2%
720-739
2%
740-759
3%
760-779
4%
780-799
9%
800-839
13%
840-879
14%
880-919
13%
920-959
13%
960-999
13%
1000+
23%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the 1000+ bracket leading at 22.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s October 2026 tweet volume because his established cadence—roughly 25–35 posts per day in recent September windows—can scale quickly with catalysts, while lower brackets cluster around 12% amid variable short-term pacing. Recent X activity shows moderation from 2024 peaks, with many three-day stretches settling in the 40–64 range and weekly totals between 160–199, reflecting steady commentary on xAI model releases, Starship timelines, Starlink expansion, and platform metrics rather than sustained spikes. Upcoming product updates, Tesla milestones, or X policy developments could accelerate reply volume and push totals higher, while quieter stretches would favor the crowded 800–959 field. The broad distribution underscores how external news cycles and Musk’s multi-company focus create high outcome uncertainty in this entertainment-adjacent social media market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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