Traders have priced a strong 91.5% implied probability that Elon Musk will not secure a $10 billion-plus settlement or verdict against Sam Altman and OpenAI because the federal trial in Oakland remains unresolved after closing arguments concluded last week. The lawsuit centers on allegations that OpenAI abandoned its original nonprofit mission to develop safe artificial intelligence for humanity in favor of a for-profit structure backed by Microsoft, yet defense arguments have highlighted Musk’s prior support for commercialization and questioned the strength of breach-of-trust claims. Recent developments, including Musk’s pre-trial settlement overture that went nowhere and Altman’s testimony defending the company’s evolution, have reinforced market skepticism about a massive payout. A jury verdict favoring Musk or an eleventh-hour negotiated resolution exceeding $10 billion could still shift the odds, though both outcomes face significant legal and evidentiary hurdles.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$79,584 Vol.
$79,584 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$79,584 Vol.
$79,584 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders have priced a strong 91.5% implied probability that Elon Musk will not secure a $10 billion-plus settlement or verdict against Sam Altman and OpenAI because the federal trial in Oakland remains unresolved after closing arguments concluded last week. The lawsuit centers on allegations that OpenAI abandoned its original nonprofit mission to develop safe artificial intelligence for humanity in favor of a for-profit structure backed by Microsoft, yet defense arguments have highlighted Musk’s prior support for commercialization and questioned the strength of breach-of-trust claims. Recent developments, including Musk’s pre-trial settlement overture that went nowhere and Altman’s testimony defending the company’s evolution, have reinforced market skepticism about a massive payout. A jury verdict favoring Musk or an eleventh-hour negotiated resolution exceeding $10 billion could still shift the odds, though both outcomes face significant legal and evidentiary hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volumen
$79,584Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders have priced a strong 91.5% implied probability that Elon Musk will not secure a $10 billion-plus settlement or verdict against Sam Altman and OpenAI because the federal trial in Oakland remains unresolved after closing arguments concluded last week. The lawsuit centers on allegations that OpenAI abandoned its original nonprofit mission to develop safe artificial intelligence for humanity in favor of a for-profit structure backed by Microsoft, yet defense arguments have highlighted Musk’s prior support for commercialization and questioned the strength of breach-of-trust claims. Recent developments, including Musk’s pre-trial settlement overture that went nowhere and Altman’s testimony defending the company’s evolution, have reinforced market skepticism about a massive payout. A jury verdict favoring Musk or an eleventh-hour negotiated resolution exceeding $10 billion could still shift the odds, though both outcomes face significant legal and evidentiary hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$79,584Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders have priced a strong 91.5% implied probability that Elon Musk will not secure a $10 billion-plus settlement or verdict against Sam Altman and OpenAI because the federal trial in Oakland remains unresolved after closing arguments concluded last week. The lawsuit centers on allegations that OpenAI abandoned its original nonprofit mission to develop safe artificial intelligence for humanity in favor of a for-profit structure backed by Microsoft, yet defense arguments have highlighted Musk’s prior support for commercialization and questioned the strength of breach-of-trust claims. Recent developments, including Musk’s pre-trial settlement overture that went nowhere and Altman’s testimony defending the company’s evolution, have reinforced market skepticism about a massive payout. A jury verdict favoring Musk or an eleventh-hour negotiated resolution exceeding $10 billion could still shift the odds, though both outcomes face significant legal and evidentiary hurdles.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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