Traders have coalesced around a 90.5% implied probability for Gemini 3.2 releasing on May 19, driven by leaks confirming the unreleased Gemini 3.2 Flash model in external LM Arena testing and iOS app builds as recently as early May, aligning precisely with Google I/O 2026's keynote on that date—Google's traditional venue for major AI model unveilings like prior Gemini iterations. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects Google's accelerated cadence post-Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite's March rollout, positioning it to counter rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 amid competitive large language model races. Realistic challenges include last-minute technical hurdles, regulatory reviews delaying public availability, or a no-show at I/O shifting timelines to May 20 or beyond, as hinted in some reports.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMay 19 91%
May 18 5.0%
May 20 2.1%
No release by May 31 2.1%
$285,553 Vol.
$285,553 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
May 15
<1%
May 16
1%
May 17
1%
May 18
5%
May 19
91%
May 20
2%
May 21
<1%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
<1%
May 26
<1%
May 27
<1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
2%
May 19 91%
May 18 5.0%
May 20 2.1%
No release by May 31 2.1%
$285,553 Vol.
$285,553 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
May 15
$7,432 Vol.
<1%
May 16
$6,606 Vol.
1%
May 17
$8,391 Vol.
1%
May 18
$34,236 Vol.
5%
May 19
$106,226 Vol.
91%
May 20
$15,674 Vol.
2%
May 21
$9,674 Vol.
<1%
May 22
$11,236 Vol.
1%
May 23
$3,483 Vol.
<1%
May 24
$3,950 Vol.
<1%
May 25
$2,915 Vol.
<1%
May 26
$3,471 Vol.
<1%
May 27
$3,941 Vol.
<1%
May 28
$2,589 Vol.
<1%
May 29
$1,918 Vol.
<1%
May 30
$5,620 Vol.
<1%
May 31
$5,006 Vol.
<1%
No release by May 31
$19,166 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders have coalesced around a 90.5% implied probability for Gemini 3.2 releasing on May 19, driven by leaks confirming the unreleased Gemini 3.2 Flash model in external LM Arena testing and iOS app builds as recently as early May, aligning precisely with Google I/O 2026's keynote on that date—Google's traditional venue for major AI model unveilings like prior Gemini iterations. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects Google's accelerated cadence post-Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite's March rollout, positioning it to counter rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 amid competitive large language model races. Realistic challenges include last-minute technical hurdles, regulatory reviews delaying public availability, or a no-show at I/O shifting timelines to May 20 or beyond, as hinted in some reports.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volumen
$285,553Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders have coalesced around a 90.5% implied probability for Gemini 3.2 releasing on May 19, driven by leaks confirming the unreleased Gemini 3.2 Flash model in external LM Arena testing and iOS app builds as recently as early May, aligning precisely with Google I/O 2026's keynote on that date—Google's traditional venue for major AI model unveilings like prior Gemini iterations. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects Google's accelerated cadence post-Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite's March rollout, positioning it to counter rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 amid competitive large language model races. Realistic challenges include last-minute technical hurdles, regulatory reviews delaying public availability, or a no-show at I/O shifting timelines to May 20 or beyond, as hinted in some reports.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$285,553Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have coalesced around a 90.5% implied probability for Gemini 3.2 releasing on May 19, driven by leaks confirming the unreleased Gemini 3.2 Flash model in external LM Arena testing and iOS app builds as recently as early May, aligning precisely with Google I/O 2026's keynote on that date—Google's traditional venue for major AI model unveilings like prior Gemini iterations. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects Google's accelerated cadence post-Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite's March rollout, positioning it to counter rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 amid competitive large language model races. Realistic challenges include last-minute technical hurdles, regulatory reviews delaying public availability, or a no-show at I/O shifting timelines to May 20 or beyond, as hinted in some reports.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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