Anthropic leads the implied odds at 66.5 percent because its Claude Opus 4.7 and unreleased Mythos Preview have posted the strongest recent results on style-controlled instruction-following and writing benchmarks, including top marks on Arena Elo and GPQA Diamond subsets. The April 16 release of Opus 4.7 extended that edge, widening the gap over OpenAI’s GPT-5.5, which launched April 23 and leads select intelligence indices but trails in controlled style tasks. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro remains competitive on reasoning efficiency yet sits at 24.5 percent as traders await any June updates. No other lab has shipped comparable frontier capability in the last 30 days, leaving Anthropic’s current positioning as the dominant factor in the market’s skin-in-the-game consensus through the end of June.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 67%
Google 25%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,072 Vol.
$1,455,072 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Anthropic
67%
25%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Microsoft
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 67%
Google 25%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,072 Vol.
$1,455,072 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Anthropic
$29,972 Vol.
67%
$18,177 Vol.
25%
OpenAI
$49,298 Vol.
6%
xAI
$14,928 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$201,099 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$136,475 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$11,847 Vol.
1%
Meta
$8,119 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$412,860 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,328 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$270,668 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$59,313 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$17,620 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,783 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$8,585 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads the implied odds at 66.5 percent because its Claude Opus 4.7 and unreleased Mythos Preview have posted the strongest recent results on style-controlled instruction-following and writing benchmarks, including top marks on Arena Elo and GPQA Diamond subsets. The April 16 release of Opus 4.7 extended that edge, widening the gap over OpenAI’s GPT-5.5, which launched April 23 and leads select intelligence indices but trails in controlled style tasks. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro remains competitive on reasoning efficiency yet sits at 24.5 percent as traders await any June updates. No other lab has shipped comparable frontier capability in the last 30 days, leaving Anthropic’s current positioning as the dominant factor in the market’s skin-in-the-game consensus through the end of June.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$1,455,072Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads the implied odds at 66.5 percent because its Claude Opus 4.7 and unreleased Mythos Preview have posted the strongest recent results on style-controlled instruction-following and writing benchmarks, including top marks on Arena Elo and GPQA Diamond subsets. The April 16 release of Opus 4.7 extended that edge, widening the gap over OpenAI’s GPT-5.5, which launched April 23 and leads select intelligence indices but trails in controlled style tasks. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro remains competitive on reasoning efficiency yet sits at 24.5 percent as traders await any June updates. No other lab has shipped comparable frontier capability in the last 30 days, leaving Anthropic’s current positioning as the dominant factor in the market’s skin-in-the-game consensus through the end of June.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$1,455,072Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic leads the implied odds at 66.5 percent because its Claude Opus 4.7 and unreleased Mythos Preview have posted the strongest recent results on style-controlled instruction-following and writing benchmarks, including top marks on Arena Elo and GPQA Diamond subsets. The April 16 release of Opus 4.7 extended that edge, widening the gap over OpenAI’s GPT-5.5, which launched April 23 and leads select intelligence indices but trails in controlled style tasks. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro remains competitive on reasoning efficiency yet sits at 24.5 percent as traders await any June updates. No other lab has shipped comparable frontier capability in the last 30 days, leaving Anthropic’s current positioning as the dominant factor in the market’s skin-in-the-game consensus through the end of June.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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