Traders have priced Anthropic at a 93% implied probability of leading coding AI models by end of May because its Claude large language model continues to top independent benchmarks like SWE-Bench and HumanEval while earning strong developer feedback for accurate code generation and tool integration. Recent model updates have reinforced this edge through improved reasoning on complex programming tasks and better performance in agentic workflows compared with competitors. OpenAI, Google, and others trail significantly, with no major releases or benchmark gains reported in the past month that would shift the current ranking. A late-May surprise from OpenAI or Google could narrow the gap, though historical release patterns make such a reversal unlikely before the cutoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 93.3%
OpenAI 2.9%
Google 2.6%
DeepSeek <1%
$35,566 Vol.
$35,566 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
Anthropic
93%
OpenAI
3%
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
<1%
xAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meta
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 93.3%
OpenAI 2.9%
Google 2.6%
DeepSeek <1%
$35,566 Vol.
$35,566 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
Anthropic
$3,960 Vol.
93%
OpenAI
$3,057 Vol.
3%
$2,843 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$2,557 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$2,538 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$2,740 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$3,265 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$2,480 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$2,581 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$2,533 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$2,719 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$1,058 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$986 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,139 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,110 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have priced Anthropic at a 93% implied probability of leading coding AI models by end of May because its Claude large language model continues to top independent benchmarks like SWE-Bench and HumanEval while earning strong developer feedback for accurate code generation and tool integration. Recent model updates have reinforced this edge through improved reasoning on complex programming tasks and better performance in agentic workflows compared with competitors. OpenAI, Google, and others trail significantly, with no major releases or benchmark gains reported in the past month that would shift the current ranking. A late-May surprise from OpenAI or Google could narrow the gap, though historical release patterns make such a reversal unlikely before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volumen
$35,566Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have priced Anthropic at a 93% implied probability of leading coding AI models by end of May because its Claude large language model continues to top independent benchmarks like SWE-Bench and HumanEval while earning strong developer feedback for accurate code generation and tool integration. Recent model updates have reinforced this edge through improved reasoning on complex programming tasks and better performance in agentic workflows compared with competitors. OpenAI, Google, and others trail significantly, with no major releases or benchmark gains reported in the past month that would shift the current ranking. A late-May surprise from OpenAI or Google could narrow the gap, though historical release patterns make such a reversal unlikely before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$35,566Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have priced Anthropic at a 93% implied probability of leading coding AI models by end of May because its Claude large language model continues to top independent benchmarks like SWE-Bench and HumanEval while earning strong developer feedback for accurate code generation and tool integration. Recent model updates have reinforced this edge through improved reasoning on complex programming tasks and better performance in agentic workflows compared with competitors. OpenAI, Google, and others trail significantly, with no major releases or benchmark gains reported in the past month that would shift the current ranking. A late-May surprise from OpenAI or Google could narrow the gap, though historical release patterns make such a reversal unlikely before the cutoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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