Traders assign a dominant 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting because resilient U.S. data and sticky inflation have reinforced the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% policy stance. April CPI came in hotter than expected while nonfarm payrolls exceeded forecasts and unemployment held near 4.3%, signaling a labor market too firm for easing. Market pricing aligns with the Fed’s latest dot plot and communications that favor patience ahead of clearer inflation progress. The June FOMC decision and upcoming May CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could shift odds if either jobs or price data weaken materially.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeine Änderung 93%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 3.5%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 3.0%
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung <1%
$5,494,150 Vol.
$5,494,150 Vol.
29. Juli 2026
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung
1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
3%
Keine Änderung
93%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
3%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung 93%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 3.5%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 3.0%
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung <1%
$5,494,150 Vol.
$5,494,150 Vol.
29. Juli 2026
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung
$530,526 Vol.
1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$413,588 Vol.
3%
Keine Änderung
$650,485 Vol.
93%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$3,393,905 Vol.
3%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$505,647 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a dominant 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting because resilient U.S. data and sticky inflation have reinforced the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% policy stance. April CPI came in hotter than expected while nonfarm payrolls exceeded forecasts and unemployment held near 4.3%, signaling a labor market too firm for easing. Market pricing aligns with the Fed’s latest dot plot and communications that favor patience ahead of clearer inflation progress. The June FOMC decision and upcoming May CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could shift odds if either jobs or price data weaken materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$5,494,150Enddatum
29. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a dominant 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting because resilient U.S. data and sticky inflation have reinforced the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% policy stance. April CPI came in hotter than expected while nonfarm payrolls exceeded forecasts and unemployment held near 4.3%, signaling a labor market too firm for easing. Market pricing aligns with the Fed’s latest dot plot and communications that favor patience ahead of clearer inflation progress. The June FOMC decision and upcoming May CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could shift odds if either jobs or price data weaken materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$5,494,150Enddatum
29. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a dominant 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting because resilient U.S. data and sticky inflation have reinforced the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% policy stance. April CPI came in hotter than expected while nonfarm payrolls exceeded forecasts and unemployment held near 4.3%, signaling a labor market too firm for easing. Market pricing aligns with the Fed’s latest dot plot and communications that favor patience ahead of clearer inflation progress. The June FOMC decision and upcoming May CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could shift odds if either jobs or price data weaken materially.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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